2015年5月10日 星期日

《中國軍事與安全發展態勢報告》

《中國軍事與安全發展態勢報告》

中國歷來不喜歡美國國防部的國會報告(Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015)。中國國防部新聞發言人耿雁生在59日表示《報告》,渲染“中國軍事威脅”論。「中方在涉及領土主權和海洋權益上的維權行動,正當合理合法」。
這份花了 US $92,000 的報告究竟說了什麼呢?其行政摘要和第一章有如是說法。

行政摘要

它開宗明義認為:中共進行一場長久的軍事現代化計劃,以期速戰速決解決一場嚴重地區衝突。

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to pursue a long-term, comprehensive military modernization program designed to improve its armed forces’ capacity to fight short-duration, high intensity regional conflicts.

它認為:中共的軍事現代化計劃已經逐漸超出了中國的周邊任務,它還包括力量顯示,海上安全,反海盜行為,維和行動,人道主義援助/災難救援等。

its military modernization program has become progressively more focused on investments for a range of missions beyond China’s periphery, including power projection, sea lane security, counter-piracy, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR)

更進一步,中共準備與任何挑釁性勢力開戰,包括美國。

Moreover, China is investing in capabilities designed to defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party —including U.S.— intervention during a crisis or conflict.

所惱何事

中國在今次惱羞成怒的可能是被指在南海問題上,“氹鷄”和不遵守海洋法。
報告指中國在海洋爭端中,往往用“氹鷄”方法,得寸進尺,又盡量避免打真軍。中國也運用貿易政策作為脅迫手段,例如,在2012年不准菲律賓香蕉進口和在2010年不賣稀土給日本,而在那次,被世貿裁為違反協定。
報告認為,中國在將來也會如此做法。

CHINESE USE OF LOW-INTENSITY COERCION IN MARITIME AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES
 China often uses a progression of small, incremental steps to increase its effective control over disputed territories and avoid escalation to military conflict.
China has also used punitive trade policies as instruments of coercion during past tensions, and could do so in future disputes. For example, through trade tariffs, tourism restrictions, and limits on foreign direct investment.
In 2012, China restricted Philippine fruit imports
In 2010, China used its market-dominance in the rare earth industry as a political and diplomatic tool, restricting exports of rare earth minerals to Japan following tensions over a collision between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese patrol ship. Chinese officials said the action was intended as a means of environmental protection, but the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2014 ruled China’s restrictions were discriminatory and violated WTO rules.

聯合國海洋法公約

報告指出,中國兩度違反聯合國海洋法公約。一次是在2013年,中國宣布的“南海九段線”違反聯合國海洋法公約。另一次是在2014年,中國對有爭端的HD-981鑽油台宣布3海里安全區,而根據國際法,它只有5百米安全範圍。

In January 2013, the Philippines requested that an arbitral tribunal constituted pursuant to Chapter XV of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOS Convention) determine that various Chinese actions in the South China Sea, including its “nine-dash line” claim, were inconsistent with China’s obligations under the LOS Convention.

On May 2, 2014, -----China announced a 3nm-security radius around HD-981—despite the fact that the LOS Convention only allows a 500 meter safety zone—and said it would conduct drilling operations from May 4 - 15 August 2014.

後記

雖然美國是根據其利益撰寫報告,但報告還是有一定的閱讀性,並非如中國國防部新聞發言人的三言兩語可以駁倒。對這份全長89頁的官方報告,中國應該找其智庫,撰文續點回應。這才是張曉明式的「特別是回應與此相關的種種惡意攻擊時,則應當多一些理直氣壯。」
習近平要打開一路一帶,需要有魄力依據國際公約,解決南海問題,而不是以中國的法律認為自己的行為「正當合理合法」。