2017年1月23日 星期一

論資本主義危機


奧巴馬在2009年的宣誓就職演辭與特朗普的有很大分別,比較兩者可看到美國國策的轉變,從而窺探資本主義面對的危機。

奧巴馬演辭與特朗普的對比

奧馬巴的演說以民主等基本教誨為重點(5)。他也有提及強大的美國及呼籲團結。但他的主要呼籲是 ─族群和諧(1)。而特朗普則指責別人竊取他的利益(2),補貼其它國家的軍隊(3)。特朗普提出保護主義(4)
兩者對中東局勢的處理手法上有所不同。奧巴馬只提及恐怖主義一次。他說:“我們必定打敗你們(6)。”特朗普則要“從地球上徹底消滅”(7)。若然,未來的中東局勢令人戰慄。

資本主義定新定位

特朗普就職演說最重要的两點是:
一,重新定義世界警察的角色,
二,重新定義資本主義全球化。

這改變是本質性的,雖然美國資本主義仍然是最有效的 (香港的中小企很清楚,美國的價太低,他們只能接一些歐洲的訂單),美國資本面對英國脫歐等,感受到不斷提升利潤的壓力。
資本全球化有一定局限,雖然可降低成本,但它同時帶來國內就業問題,被迫以福利來緩和矛盾。這是特朗普要求美國優先的原因(8)。正如他所說:“所有國家都把自己的利益放在首位。”難道奧巴馬不是如此嗎?
例如,芬蘭(9)2017年開始推行計劃一項為期兩年了試驗計劃:給2000名公民一筆保證的收入。這是因為它的失業率達至8個百份點,最高時為20
美國不會完全放棄世界警察角色和資本全球化,但特朗普主義會對此可能有一定程度的收歛。這在短期內可能減少其利潤,但由於水漲船高道理,它始終跑贏其他資本主義對手如歐洲、英國、日本等,所以特朗普主義仍然行得通的。

 

 

附錄



1

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

因為我們明白,東拼西湊的遺產是優點而非弱點。我們是由基督教、伊斯蘭教(穆斯林)、猶太教、印度教教徒,及無神論者所組成的國家。我們由各種語言和文化形塑,從地球的各端刻畫出我們的輪廓。我們嚐到內戰和種族隔離的苦果,脫離黑暗時期後更加強壯團結,因此我們相信舊的仇恨總有一天會過去,族群之間的界線很快會湮滅。隨著世界越來越小,我們共通的人性會展露出來,美國則必須扮演好自己的角色,迎接和平新時代。

2

我們必須保護我們的邊界,旨在免受其它國家的蹂躪,包括製造我們(需要)的產品,竊取我們的公司(利益),並奪走我們的職缺。保護(邊界)將迎來巨大的繁榮和力量。

3
幾十年來,我們以犧牲美國工業為代價豐富了外國產業;補貼其它國家的軍隊,卻允許我們的軍隊非常難過地衰落;我們捍衛了其它國家的邊界,卻拒絕捍衛自己國家的邊界;並在海外花費了數萬億美元,而美國的基礎設施則陷入年久失修和腐朽。


4

保護將迎來巨大的繁榮和力量。我會用我身體的每一口氣為你們而戰——我永遠不會讓你失望。美國將再次贏得勝利,贏得前所未有的勝利
Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will never, ever let you down. America will start winning again — winning like never before. We will bring back our jobs, our borders, our wealth, our dreams. We will build new roads, bridges, airports and highways all across the nation. We will get people off of welfare. We will follow two simple rules: buy American and hire American. We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that is the right of all nations to put their own notions first.”


5

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions -- that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

這就是我們今天承續下去的旅程。美國依然是地球上最富裕、最強大的國家。和危機剛爆發時相比,我們的生產力毫不遜色。與上星期、上個月或者去年相比,我們頭腦的創造力毫無減退,商品和服務的市場需求也毫無衰弱。我們實力不減。但是,歌舞昇平、保護狹隘利益、猶疑做出艱難決定的時代已成過往。從今天開始,我們必須自立自強,拍掉身上的泥土,重塑美國。


對來自貧窮國家的人民,我們保證和你們同心協力,使農場蓬勃發展,讓清水永不止息,滋養饑餓的肉體,豐富貧瘠的心靈。對那些和我們同等富庶的國家,我們說,我們再也不能對境外的苦痛無動於衷,不能不顧後果地消耗全球資源。世界變了,我們也得跟著改變。

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment -- a moment that will define a generation -- it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.



6

, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.

對那些想藉由恐怖主義與濫殺無辜,以推進目標的人,我們現在告訴你,我們的靈魂比你們更堅強,不屈不撓,你們不可能比我們更屹立不搖,我們必定打敗你們。

7
我們將加強原有的聯盟,形成新的聯盟,並將文明世界聯合起來,制止激進的伊斯蘭恐怖主義,我們將從地球上徹底消滅(恐怖主義)。
We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth.

8
。我們將讓我們的人民擺脫(領取)福利,重返工作崗位——用美國人的雙手和美國勞工重建我們的國家。
我們將遵循兩個簡單的規則:購買美國(製造的產品)和僱用美國人。
We will get our people off of welfare and back to work, rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor. We will follow two simple rules; buy American and hire American.

注9
Finland is giving 2,000 citizens a guaranteed income
by Ivana Kottasova   @ivanakottasova
January 3, 2017: 8:35 AM ET 

Carl Icahn: 'The minimum wage should go up'
Finland has started a radical experiment: It's giving 2,000 citizens a guaranteed income, with funds that keep flowing whether participants work or not.
The program, which kicks off this month, is one of the first efforts to test a "universal basic income." Participants will receive €560 ($587) a month -- money that is guaranteed regardless of income, wealth or employment status.
The idea is that a universal income offers workers greater security, especially as technological advances reduce the need for human labor. It will also allow unemployed people to pick up odd jobs without losing their benefits.
The initial program will run for a period of two years. Participants were randomly selected, but had to be receiving unemployment benefits or an income subsidy. The money they are paid through the program will not be taxed.
If the program is successful, it could be expanded to include all adult Finns.
The Finnish government thinks the initiative could save money in the long run. The country's welfare system is complex and expensive to run, and simplifying it could reduce costly bureaucracy.
The change could also encourage more jobless people to look for work, because they won't have to worry about losing unemployment benefits. Some unemployed workers currently avoid part time jobs because even a small income boost could result in their unemployment benefits being canceled.
"Incidental earnings do not reduce the basic income, so working and ... self-employment are worthwhile no matter what," said Marjukka Turunen, the head of the legal unit at Kela, Finland's social insurance agency.
finland guaranteed income
Related: Switzerland rejects plan to pay every citizen at least $2,500 a month
The idea is not unique to Finland.
Advocates point to the Italian city of Livorno, which started a guaranteed basic income for the city's 100 poorest families in June. The scheme was extended to further 100 families starting Sunday. They are receiving €500 ($525) per month.
Pilot programs are also being discussed in Canada, Iceland, Uganda and Brazil.
Switzerland last year considered giving every adult citizen a guaranteed income of $2,500 a month, but the plan was rejected in a referendum. More than 75% of voters were against the measure.
The best example of a guaranteed income program might actually be in the U.S. Alaska has been giving out annual cash payments to all residents since the 1980s, a dividend from the state's oil revenue.
BIEN, a group that campaigns for universal income, describes it as the first "genuine universal basic income system."


芬蘭給2,000公民提供了保證的收入
作者:Ivana Kottasova @ivanakottasova
201713日:上午8:35

Carl Icahn:“最低工資應該上漲”
芬蘭開始了一項激進的實驗:它給了2000名公民一筆保證的收入,資金不斷流動,無論參與者是否工作。
這個計劃本月開始,是測試“普遍基本收入”的第一個努力之一。參與者每月將獲得560歐元(587美元) - 無論收入,財富或就業狀況如何,這些錢都得到保證。
這種想法是,普遍收入為工人提供了更大的安全性,特別是隨著技術進步減少了對人力勞動的需求。它還將允許失業人員在不失去福利的情況下接受奇數工作。
初始計劃將運行兩年。參與者被隨機選擇,但必須獲得失業救濟金或收入補貼。通過該計劃支付的錢不會被徵稅。
如果該計劃成功,可以擴大到包括所有成年芬蘭人。
芬蘭政府認為,從長遠來看,這一舉措可以節省資金。該國的福利制度複雜,運行成本高,簡化可以減少代價高昂的官僚機構。
這種變化還可以鼓勵更多失業人員尋找工作,因為他們不必擔心失業失業救濟。一些失業工人目前避免兼職工作,因為即使少量的收入增加也可能導致他們的失業福利被取消。
芬蘭社會保險機構Kela法律部門負責人Marjukka Turunen說,“附帶收入不會減少基本收入,所以工作和自我就業是值得的,不管是什麼。
芬蘭保證收入
相關:瑞士拒絕每月向每個公民支付至少2,500美元的計劃
這個想法不是芬蘭獨有的。
倡導者指向意大利利沃諾市,該市在6月開始為該市100個最貧困家庭提供有保障的基本收入。該計劃從星期天開始延伸到100個家庭。他們每月收到€500$ 525)。
加拿大,冰島,烏干達和巴西正在討論試點方案。
瑞士去年考慮給每個成年公民一個月保證收入2,500美元,但該計劃在全民投票中被拒絕。超過75%的選民反對這項措施。
保證收入計劃的最好例子可能實際上在美國。阿拉斯加自1980年代以來一直向所有居民發放年度現金支付,這是國家石油收入的紅利。

BIEN是一個為普遍收入而運動的團體,它將其描述為第一個“真正的普遍基本收入製度”。

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