Outline of the discussion on the Ukraine issue

 Outline of the discussion on the Ukraine issue

 

I will have a video meeting with my two friends, the purpose of which is to get back together, but will inevitably discuss Ukraine, especially whether it will trigger a nuclear war. Since it is difficult to effectively express my personal opinions on video on such issues, I hereby write down my position and hope as a discussion outline.

 

basic argument

Some pro-China remarks on the market justified Russia's actions by citing the past hegemonic behavior of the United States, or Russia's self-protection and anti-encirclement and suppression efforts, or the Ukrainian president's push for neo-Nazism.

My answer is no for the following reasons. First, Russia is not in immediate danger. Second, neighboring countries joining NATO does not mean encircling their external ports, because NATO countries have always had normal exchanges with Russia, and this is within the scope of Ukraine’s sovereignty, and The characteristic of Nazism is the persecution of established ethnic groups. For example, Germany allowed the mob to chase and beat the Jews on the line. This situation did not occur.

Therefore, the Russian side hastily dispatched troops to go deep into Uhran, far exceeding the statement announced before the invasion that it would only send peacekeeping troops to the eastern region of Ukrainian.

 

Pro-Russian Ukrainian forces

The so-called pro-Russian armed forces are actually quite weak, and they are completely inferior to those in Afghanistan, because they do not even have stable media propaganda and reports.

Accordingly, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, disrupting the international order and bringing about humanitarian disasters, should absolutely be condemned.

 

history lessons

The U.S. smashed the Hussein regime, resulting in long-term instability in the Middle East, especially Syria. A large number of refugees are hiding a large number of crimes, especially human trafficking. The United States can stay out of it, but Europe is still suffering from this bitter fruit. But the U.S. has also learned its lesson. He knows that regional stability is more important than anti-dictatorship. Therefore, to a certain extent, the dictatorship in some regions is in the interests of the United States. This explains the early restraint response of the United States. The United States does not want Putin to step down.

Across the Mediterranean, the much weaker Middle East is still like this. If Russia is out of control, its impact on EU countries is unimaginable. Europe has suffered from the south, and it is hard to say. Of course, I don’t want its history to repeat itself in the north. So NATO countries are also very restrained in the first few days.

 

Characteristics of Politicians in Democracies

They are all deferring to the will of the people and paving the way for themselves and their party in the next elections, the powerful anti-war movement has changed Europe's approach, and Putin has gone beyond peacekeeping and Udong's approach, making Europe unacceptable.

 

strategic angle

Ukraine itself is an ancient country with a unique cultural background. It is also a big industrial country. It only lacks modern weapons. The supply of advanced arms from NATO countries will allow it to fight for a long time with the Russian army, which is the fatal point of Putin's expectation of a quick solution. This is a recent example of the Chinese Communist Party Deng Xiaoping's invasion of Vietnam. Vietnam's success does not mean that it is feasible today, and modern warfare mainly depends on the sophistication of technology, not quantity. Russia has left a large number of weapons from the Cold War era. Its GDP ranks eleventh, lower than Brazil and Canada. It can be seen that it has been in financial difficulties, and there is money to develop new weapons.

 

news angle

The author uses cloud technology to directly read Ukrainian, Belarusian and Russian newspapers. Ukraine's largest media independent news agency, the scale of the war reported by the Western or Chinese media seems to be lower and less sensational, such as the attack on the village it reported, only a few dozen people were affected, ranging from twelve to the Hero Medal ( Half of them were killed) also reflected the battle situation, at least, the main force of the Ukrainian army did not fight with the Russian army. Although Ukraine accuses the Russian military of committing war crimes, the Russian military is still strictly disciplined according to reports. The weather in the Black Sea will be bad for the next week, and the Russian troops will not be able to land to help it earn a little time.

The Belarusian newspapers are very low-key and do not want its citizens to know the situation of the war, reporting that its elite troops have assembled and are ready to go. But it has to calculate the economic sanctions of the West, and it may not be able to eat and walk away.

A report in a Russian newspaper run by a wealthy businessman also indicated that the battle was not in full swing.

The Chinese-language reports or online media only conform to Chinese tastes, that is, Western food is cooked as Tang food, basically speaking for itself and only reflecting its political stance. Western media has its own unique style, which reflects the fact that the media itself cannot be separated from the essence of its commodities. To survive, it must conform to the tastes of its audience. The story teaches us that we can't live without commodities, but don't trust them completely.

 

cultural shift

There is patriotism in Ukraine and heroic sacrifices to defend the territory, but we will also see mass exodus. In today's society, the world is home, where there is democracy, freedom and stability. There we have become the new culture of internationalism, the emergence of a new generation of international citizens on the planet. If Ukrainians see better places to immigrate, such as Germany and the United States, they can't say that they are unpatriotic.

 

game theory

Mathematical wizard John Forbes Nash won the Nobel Prize in Economics for proving that any struggle has a local equilibrium, that is, if we connect all the strategic behaviors of both sides into a surface, they will all come to a certain point. The common ground is accepted by everyone; otherwise, that party will lose. In modern warfare, the probability of appearing madmen is extremely small. Even dictators are subject to some people and some national interests. Therefore, this crisis has taken a step forward. For the Uzbek side, any gains will not make up for its future needs. face long-term economic losses. Let's not forget that when the old Bush did not accept the nuclear reduction agreement proposed by Gorbachev, the heavy arms race finally dragged down the Soviet Union's economy and led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Putin will not be unaware of this.

 

Sino-Russian Alliance

The reason why China and Russia have been unable to form an alliance is because there was the Comintern at that time, and a group of small countries was the bait of the Communist boss. This historical factor has disappeared. Both China and Russia feel equally besieged by the United States. Australia accuses China of receiving Russian wheat at the moment of war. It is not a trivial matter. Anyway, China has already intentionally developed an internal circulation to counter the economic difficulties of the United States. The original intention of the Belt and Road Initiative was to connect to Europe, but now it is no longer possible. It is also a good idea to connect to Russia and span the countries of Central Asia.

 

nuclear blackmail

If Russia launches a nuclear war, it will kill itself. Even if it blows up one or two American cities, the United States will not perish. On the contrary, in conventional warfare alone, the United States and Europe have the ability to destroy Russia. So nuclear war won't happen, but nuclear blackmail works. Let’s see that the United States responded to the chemical weapons crisis in Syria with fifty-nine cruise missiles in 2017. Why did they launch cruise missiles to prevent the Russian army from advancing in Ukraine? The answer is very simple, Russia has a large number of nuclear weapons, that is, the small Small North Korea, nuclear blackmail also has a check on the United States. Putin's raising the nuclear level just wants to contain the military support of Europe and the United States to Ukraine.

 

Taiwan question

It is foolish for Biden to jump out at the first time and say that the United States will not get involved militarily. Biden will not take the risk of a nuclear bomb to confront the CCP, which has a large number of nuclear weapons. This kind of trump card that only uses economic sanctions or even provides weapons is very unfavorable to Taiwan. It is meaningless for him to send any officials to visit Taiwan.

 

Long-term impact on Russia

It is an indisputable fact that Russia will suffer long-term economic sanctions. Because no matter what its next move is, even if it withdraws its troops completely (I believe it must keep some troops in Udong), the Western countries have no excuse to lift all sanctions.

 

SWIFT

This is just a global clearing system, which is convenient for a certain party, for example, a large sum of money is to be repaid tonight, and a large sum of money is received, so the system can be used for hedging. Without this system, the central bank of Russia has to do more work, but Anyway, the money is there, you can still pay for the transaction.

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